Will the Euro collapse?

Some people are totally convinced that the eurozone will collapse.

They have also therefore of course put huge sums of money on bets in order to make money if there is such a disaster.

What they don't seem to realise is that if the euro does collapse, the disaster will be so huge that any money they make will be meaningless:

The dollar will rise, but all other currencies (not only the euro) will collapse, as bets will then be made on all other "weak currencies" (that includes the currency of China because it is so heavily dependent on exports - and trade has already been practically frozen since the summer).

If the Chinese currency collapses that is basically the end of China for the moment, and therefore of all parts of Asia and Africa that are closely intertwined with it.

In turn, that will mean that all emerging markets (that's basically everything outside the USA) will collapse - possibly excluding India, which is not so heavily reliant on export but the impact on Indian exports remains to be seen if the Indian rupee comes to be seen as something to invest in as an "alternative safe haven" from the US dollar).

The Canadian dollar and Mexican Peso will probably do all right because they are so closely linked with the US, though they will suffer at least a bit because of the collapse of commodity prices including oil. That also applies to all countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar.

That will mean the US flying high (not for any good reason, of course), but the rest of the world will be so badly hit that the US itself will be hit as all export-related jobs and companies will be hit.

Not a pretty scenario.

If you have any sense or conscience, therefore, do not bet against the euro. If that goes down, all of us go down.

Meanwhile, if the euro is properly rescued, those of us who have money there will do well out of it.

The euro is, overall, by far the more intelligent bet.